Gujarat’s Triangular Grapple

The election battle is heating up for a triangular confrontation this time in Gujarat. EC has declared December 1 and 5 as polling dates for the Gujarat Assembly elections. The AAP has declared Isudan Gadhvi as its chief-ministerial candidate. Since long the BJP and Congress are major opponents in this State. With the AAP entering the battle field, this time it would not be a bipolar contest between the BJP and Congress in Gujarat.  Since 1995, the state is under the control of the saffron party. The BJP is compelled to put everything on the line to continue its historic run as new forces like the AAP entered the picture. AAP has entered the Gujarat race head-on. It is buoyed by its success in last month’s municipal elections (during which, notably, the Congress failed miserably). Its resounding triumph in Punjab has also been a major morale booster. Party supremo Kejriwal is trying to win over people by giving examples of the Delhi Model.

Other developments pose a danger to the BJP’s “Hindutva” electoral theory, which has been the main driver of the party’s victories under the leadership of Modi and Shah since 2001. Since rising unemployment and inflation are such important issues, it is impossible to ignore the anti-incumbency restlessness among the public. Gujarat has landed two massive industrial projects in the last two months: the Rs 1.63 lakh crore Vedanta-Foxconn semiconductor partnership and the Rs 22,000 crore Tata-Airbus aircraft project. This suggests that the BJP has sensed the mood of the populace.

In the meantime, it appears that Congress has not been able to take advantage of the BJP’s narrow margin of victory in the 2017 Assembly elections, and people are losing confidence in the party. The Rural Patidar community will be a major worry for the BJP. This farming community is dissatisfied with BJP’s agricultural policies. Congress had inducted young leaders like Hardik Patel, Jignesh Mevani, and Alpesh Thakore into its fold, to woo this community. Unfortunately, the internally divided Congress was unable to keep them for very long. Patel and Thakore defected to the BJP. The election results on December 8 will show whether the Congress or AAP are successful in eroding the vote base of the BJP, or if the saffron party is able to stick to power again.