Fear of Post-Monsoon Cyclone Over Bay of Bengal Looms Large

Bhubaneswar: During October to December post-monsoon cyclones develop over the Bay of Bengal (BoB). As some of these cyclones hit Odisha coast, this time span is called “cyclone season” in Odisha.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its North Indian Ocean Extended Range Outlook for Cyclogenesis has indicated likely formation of a low pressure area over east-central Bay of Bengal and adjoining area during the first half of week 2 (29.09.2023-05.10.2023) but with a low probability of cyclogenesis over the same region.

If any cyclonic system develops into a cyclone by September 30 or October 1, it will be called Tej, a name given by India. While initial reports suggest that the landfall might occur between Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts, it’s too early to pin a location before cyclogenesis

“ECMWF and NCUM models are showing the formation of a low-pressure area over central BoB with intensification into depression around September 28 and move further west-northwestwards towards north Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coasts during the first half of week 2. The NCEP GFS model forecasts indicate that a low-pressure area would form over eastcentral-southeast BoB and adjoining Andaman Sea around September 29 which is likely to move west-northwestward and intensify further into a depression over Central BoB and subsequently into a cyclonic storm over west-central BoB during next 3- 4 days.

However, the IMD GFS model does not indicate any cyclogenesis over BoB during week 1 (22.09.2023-28.09.2023).