IMD Predicts Above-Normal Monsoon Rainfall for 2024, La Nina Conditions Expected

New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted above-normal rainfall for the 2024 monsoon season, with La Nina conditions anticipated by August-September.

However, despite the overall prediction, uneven distribution of rainfall across the country is expected due to climate change exacerbating variability.

This phenomenon has seen a decline in the number of rainy days but an increase in heavy rain events, leading to more frequent droughts and floods.

Based on data spanning from 1951 to 2023, nine instances have been recorded where India experienced above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season following an El Nino event, according to Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, chief of the IMD. The estimated cumulative rainfall for the four-month monsoon season (June to September) is anticipated to be around 106 percent of the long-period average (87 cm).

Favourable conditions, such as positive Indian Ocean Dipole outlook and low snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere, are expected during the monsoon season, further enhancing the prospects for the Indian southwest monsoon, as highlighted by Mohapatra. Presently, moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing, expected to transition to neutral as the monsoon season approaches, followed by the onset of La Nina conditions by August-September.

In 2023, India experienced below-average cumulative rainfall during an El Nino year, registering 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm. Preceding 2023, the country witnessed four consecutive years of normal to above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season.

Forecasting for the monsoon season relies on three major climatic factors: El Nino, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and snow cover over the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass. These elements significantly influence India’s southwest monsoon, which contributes approximately 70 percent of the country’s annual rainfall, crucial for its agriculture sector accounting for about 14 percent of GDP.