Monsoon Likely To Arrive Over Kerala Around May 31: IMD

New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted the arrival of the Southwest Monsoon over Kerala around May 31, kicking off the vital four-month rainy season for the nation’s agriculture sector.

“We expect the monsoon to hit Kerala on May 31st, with a possible variation of four days,” the IMD announced on Wednesday. IMD Director-General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said, “This is near the typical arrival date, which falls on June 1st.”

Last month, the IMD forecast above-average rainfall for the June-September Southwest Monsoon season. June and July are particularly crucial for agriculture, as most Kharif crops are sown during this period.

Two key factors are expected to contribute to abundant rainfall: a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and below-average snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia. A positive IOD indicates cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean compared to the west, historically linked to increased rainfall in several South Indian states. While the IOD is currently neutral, it’s anticipated to turn positive by August.

Furthermore, below-normal snow cover has also been linked to stronger monsoons in the past.